Will peace in the Middle East progress with the Trump administration?

By Ikuzo Kobayashi, President to Salaam Association

From the Winter Issue of the electronic “Salaam Quarterly Bulletin”, No.53, May 2025

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President Trump is reportedly scheduled to visit the Middle East in mid-May. President Trump’s first overseas travel was a visit to the Middle East, and his visit there this time will be eight years after his first official visit to the region. Judging from the fact that he planned to visit the Middle East after making adequate progress toward the end of the war in Ukraine, it can be assumed that he is highly committed to peace in the Middle East.
The Gaza War, which began with a large-scale terrorist attack by Hamas, is now a year and a half old, and from the perspective of the “war on terror,” Israel is on the verge of victory. The Trump administration is expected to take a stand to declare an end to the war on terror and come up with a bold plan to build peace in the Middle East.

1. Why was there no declaration of an end to the ‘War on Terror’?

1） The ‘War on Terror’ was declared by President Bush (then) immediately after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.

Recognizing that an emergency situation that could endanger a country could occur anywhere in the world, the UN Security Council unanimously passed UN Resolution 1368. In its preamble, the resolution “recognized the right of individual and collective self-defense. ” Under this resolution, NATO invoked its right of collective self-defense for the first time since its founding, and the U.S. Congress “authorized the use of all necessary and appropriate force. ” Japan enacted the Terrorism Special Measures Law.
Specifically, the U.S., U.K., France, and others exercised “Operation Enduring Freedom,” while Japan transported supplies and conducted “Indian Ocean refueling operations. ”

2）The U.S. identified al-Qaeda, an Islamic militant organization, as the mastermind of the attacks and demanded that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, its stronghold, extradite Osama bin Laden. However, the Taliban regime refused, leading to the Afghan war. With the cooperation of the Afghan Northern Alliance and the Pakistani regime, the Taliban regime collapsed within two months and Kabul was overrun. However, Osama Bin Laden could not be captured.

3） Later, while Afghanistan continued to be in a state of civil war with the Taliban, a transitional government was formed and Chairman Hamid Karzai assumed office. A new constitution was issued in January, 2004, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was established and President Karzai was elected in November.
In May 2011, U.S. Special Forces raided and killed Bin Laden at his hideout 60 km northeast of Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan

At the time, Afghanistan was under the presidency of President Karzai, but the Taliban still retained considerable power as an insurgent group, and the country was in a state of potential civil war. In addition, al-Qaeda forces were still in place in the Khorasan region of Iran, west of Afghanistan.

4）Meanwhile, the U.S. and British forces launched a war against the Hussein regime in Iraq, which was suspected of possessing weapons of mass destruction and was the hideout of Al-Qaeda, as a “war on terror. ” The Hussein regime collapsed in 40 days. Neither the fact that the Hussein regime was hiding Bin Laden nor any documents proving its relationship with Al-Qaeda were discovered, nor were any WMD found.
After the Iraq War, the ruling authority of Iraq was transferred to a civilian government in 2006, but Prime Minister Maliki, a Shiite, was unable to calm the insurgency in Iraq, and the country remained unstable. Moreover, immediately after Maliki came to power, Iraqi al-Qaeda began a strong anti-U.S. and anti-Maliki movement. This group changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq after receiving news of the killing of Bin Laden.
Based on the above situation, it is clear that the “war on terror” with al-Qaeda could not be ended.

2 Arab Spring and ISIS “Islamic State”

1）In December 2010, a young Tunisian man burned himself to death in protest against the government. This information spread quickly on the Internet, and massive protests against the regimes considered to be a long-term dictatorship in the Middle East, quickly spread like wildfire to Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, and Syria.
After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan remained in a state of quasi-civil war and its democratic politics based on Islam was unstable. In Iraq, a Shiite Maliki government was established after the war ended, but the country’s internal politics remained unstable. Thus, the pressure for democratization in Muslim countries around the world was increasing. Under these circumstances, large-scale anti-government protests aimed at overthrowing long-term dictatorships were dubbed the “Arab Spring” in reference to the “Prague Spring” of the past.
The Prague Spring of 1968 was an anti-government movement that sought freedom and democracy based on Christianity and liberation from the rigid oppression of the Soviet communist regime. In contrast, the anti-government movement against the long-term dictatorship that began in Tunisia appeared to be a democratic movement for an Islam-based republican government against the evil of the long-term regime considered to be dictatorship. However, the Muslim Brotherhood, which led the protests, is a group that wages jihad (holy war) on the grounds that the nation-state brought about by Western culture is a secular state that is incompatible with an Islamist state rooted in Islam. The Muslim Brotherhood is a group that is the target of jihad (holy war) because it believes that the nation-state brought about by Western culture is a secular state incompatible with the Islamist state rooted in Islam. When its radical and militant nature becomes extreme and justifies the use of force and armed terrorism, it crosses over the basic Islamic tenet and turns into an extremist, jihadist group that is deviated from Quran. The assassin who killed President Sadat during a review of the military parade commemorating the victory of the war against Israel on October 6, 1981 was a member of the Jihadist Group, a radical, extremist faction of the Muslim Brotherhood.
In February 2011, the mass demonstrations dubbed the Arab Spring forced Egyptian President Mubarak to resign. The following June, President Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was elected. Immediately after his election, Morsi rapidly became close to Hamas and Iran, persecuted the Coptic Church in violation of his own pledge, and terrorism attacks became more frequent. The Egyptian people, in reaction to the threat of an Iranian-style theocracy and the threat of economic collapse, once again shouted “Morsi out” in a nationwide demonstration of more than 1 million people, and the Morsi administration was ousted after one year in power. Subsequently, a new constitution was enacted by an interim president allowed to rule for one year and President El-Sisi assumed the power on June 30, 2014. Egypt calls this the Second Revolution.

2）Due to the Arab Spring, Libya is still in a civil war, Syria was in a civil war until the end of last year, Yemen is in a divided state, Iraq is in a potential civil war, and all republican regimes remain unstable. On the other hand, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Jordan, UAE, Sultan of Oman, State of Kuwait and Qatar, which were expected to be swallowed by the storm of the Arab Spring and exposed to tectonic shifts, have survived the Arab Spring and are now running stable states.

3）Emergence of ISIS “Islamic State”
On June 29, 2014, ISIS (Islamic State) emerged in Iraq, which had been extremely destabilized by the storm of the Arab Spring, and in Syria, which was plunged into a quagmire civil war due to the Assad regime’s repression of anti-government protests. It made a unilateral declaration of statehood on the Internet with control over territory straddling Iraq and Syria. It publicly criticized that the existing sovereignty and government of the Iraqi and Syrian states are secular and not Islamist. Therefore, it is the responsibility of Muslims to overthrow these regimes even by force of arms and jihad in its view. It started frequent terrorist attacks at many locations. The ISIS regime has expanded its territory by using force and fear to force the population to submit to ISIS. The territory occupied by ISIS was claimed as the “land” of the Islamic State.
Needless to say, Iraq and Syria would never recognize the Islamic State, nor would any other country in the world. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states have even called ISIS “Darwish,” the Arabic acronym for “Islamic State,” which also means the one who tramples and torment and demanded that the Western media not refer to it as the Islamic State.

4）Background of the Islamic State
ISIS’s predecessors are Al-Qaeda and the Jihadist group. Each has only a different strategy to achieve an Islamist national or global revolution. Al-Qaeda (the base) has the direct goal of building a global network from its base to overthrow the U.S. as the world’s greatest devil (jihad), as Israel’s backer. ISIS, on the other hand, began with the control of the territory of Iraq and then expanded into Syria, building an Islamic empire in the Abbasid era, before taking on the Western Judeo-Christian world in a global war.
Afghan fighters opposed to the Soviet Union’s military intervention to bring about a communist regime in Afghanistan were called mujahidin. Abdullah Azzam, an advocate of militant jihadism and a professor at King Aziz University in Saudi Arabia, recruited university student Osama bin Laden to join the Muslim Brotherhood. In 1982, Azzam, who had committed himself to the mujahidin struggle, persuaded bin Laden to go to Afghanistan. He and his mentor called on Muslims around the world to recruit mujahidin fighters and built a guesthouse to house them, as well as a combat training facility. It is said that he recruited 20,000 fighters before he established Al-Qaeda in 1988.

The hotbed of the Jihadist group that assassinated President Sadat in a broad daylight terrorist attack was the Muslim Brotherhood. Naturally, it was outlawed in Egypt, and many radical extremists fled to the Sinai Peninsula, Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Turkey. Many then drifted to Afghanistan.
The Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood changed its name to Hamas in 1987 and joined the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) as a political group, taking an anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli stance and stating that the only resistance movement against the Israeli occupation was terrorism (jihad). However, this was the opposite of the stance of Fatah, the mainstream PLO, and was a disguised infiltration to hijack the PLO. Hamas’s Islamism is a political scenario in which Hamas frequently engages in terrorism (jihad) to end the Israeli occupation of Palestine, and then expels the State of Israel from Palestine and establishes a Palestinian state (an Islamic state). The Taliban, led by Omar, aimed to build an Islamic state in Afghanistan under the same scenario. Omar was also strongly influenced by Azzam during the mujahidin struggle and brought the Taliban regime to power in Afghanistan in 1995.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran created the Islamic Republic of Iran. This revolution was an Islamist theocracy which advocates an anti-American and anti-Israeli world order based on Shiism.
Thus, it can be said to be akin to the Islamism of the Sunni-based, anti-Israel and anti-U.S. jihadist groups, Jihadist group, Al-Qaeda, and Hamas. After the revolution, Iran embarked on exporting the revolution to the Shiite-dominated Gulf states. Its aim is expanded to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

5）The Rage of ISIS “Islamic State” and the ‘War on Terror’
The declaration of the establishment of the Islamic State greatly inspired Islamic extremists scattered around the world to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State. The previously latent network of terrorism began to take control of territories in the region.
In its home bases of Iraq and Syria, the group has organized itself, making Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, the capital of the “Islamic State” Iraqi province, and Raqqa, the largest city in the eastern Syria, the capital of the Syrian province.
It recruited fighters to the following
“Islamic State” Sinai Province, Nejed Province.
“Islamic State” Libya Province, France Province
Tunis Province, Yemen Branch
Boko Haram pledges allegiance to IS
Abu Sayyaf Supports IS
Mujahideen support IS
Working with the Taliban in Afghanistan

At the culmination of this rapid network expansion and centralized coordination and command structure, the Paris simultaneous terrorist attacks occurred on the night of November 13, 2015, killing 130 people and wounding 352. Eighteen people were involved in the attacks, and the IS French Province claimed responsibility for the attack, sending eight fighters. The French president declared a “state of emergency,” appealed to the world for coordination against the Islamic State, and stepped up airstrikes in Syria.

In February 2015, the six Gulf countries of the Middle East resolved “Islamic cooperation, tolerance, and international collaboration,” “cutting off funding for terrorism, strengthening surveillance of controlled areas, and increasing surveillance of Darwishes.”
Furthermore, on December 15, 2015, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad announced the formation of an anti-terrorism,” “Islamic Military Coalition” consisting of 34 countries and regions in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. (pictured left)

6）First-term President Trump’s visit to the Middle East
In 2017 President Trump chose the Middle East for his first overseas visit. He visited Saudi Arabia on May 19-21, and Israel on May 22-23.
In his speech in Riyadh, he said that terrorism is the result of Islamic ideology, and that Islamic leaders should take responsibility for solving it. He also stated that the war against extremists is not the war of religions or civilizations but the war between good and evil. He emphasized the stance of the United States as a mediator for Middle East peace, saying, “The two parties should resolve this issue through negotiations, and the U.S. will support that. “

7）Collapse of ISIS “Islamic State”
On June 29, 2017, Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi declared the recapture of Mosul.
On October 18, 2017, Raqqa, Syria, the “capital” of ISIS, fell. “Islamic State” collapsed and was degraded into scattered extremist groups at different sites. On October 27, 2019, U.S. Special Forces raided Baghdadi’s hideout in northwestern Syria. Baghdadi, who was exalts as the caliph, blew himself up along with two of his children.

3 U.S. President Trump after the destruction of the terrorist organization Hamas

1）More than a year and a half has passed since October 7, 2023. The fighting with Hamas has largely ended. Although all hostages have not yet been released, Gaza residents have begun shouting “Hamas must go,” and CNN News reported that on March 26, 2025, thousands protested in northern Gaza, shouting “Hamas must go.”

The Muslim Brotherhood, which had become a hotbed of terrorism, was outlawed in Egypt after Sadat’s assassination, and Palestine became an ideal refuge for it. As a result, the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine rapidly radicalized, changed its name to Hamas in 1987, and fought against the mainstream PLO faction Fatah. It has opposed at every turn the path from the Oslo Accords won by President Yasser Arafat to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority and independence.
There was no compromise or negotiation in the Hamas resistance movement, only jihad (terror) at the end. It would not accept a national state which was sought after by 88% of Palestinians who elected Arafat as their president, and opposed as the target of jihad.
After Israel withdrew from the occupation of Gaza in 2005, the PLO mainstream Fatah was driven out by force and Hamas took effective control of Gaza. Twenty years later, the situation has made no progress. It is no exaggeration to say that aid money to the Palestinians has been used to purchase weapons and dig tunnels for Hamas.
The October 7 large-scale terrorism by Hamas was nothing more than a brutal and atrocious terrorist attack. Not a single Arab nation supported it. As I have said, no Arab nation supports terrorism. Nevertheless, if Hamas wants to terrorize people and create a state of war, there was no other choice but to destroy it through a “war on terror. “

2）The Gaza War is not a war between Israel and neighboring countries.
①Ceasefire agreement between the Israeli and Lebanese governments was signed on November 27 last year. But Israel and Lebanon were not at war. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The reason for this is that Hezbollah was aligned with Hamas and involved in terrorism by launching rockets against Israel.
More than 20 countries around the world have recognized Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.
The Lebanese government has agreed to a new agreement with Hezbollah. With this agreement, the Lebanese government promised Israel that they would control the military organization of Hezbollah, which is not a government force. Therefore, from now on, Hezbollah will not be able to fight Israel on its own or dispatch fighter on its own to support the Assad regime in Syria. Furthermore, their relations with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which guides and directs the Hezbollah, were also cut off.
②As soon as a ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and the Lebanese government, the Syrian rebel army, the Shahm Liberation Organization (HTS), immediately attacked Assad’s government forces in Aleppo and overran the city on November 30, arriving in Hama on December 2, Homs on December 5, and Damascus on December 7, leading to the collapse of the Asad regime.

As can be seen from the above history, Hezbollah has neither the power nor the ability to support Assad’s government forces in Aleppo. There appeared to be neither aerial bombardment support from Russia nor the Shiite militia support from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. In other words, although Israel did not enter into war against Syria, Israel dealt a major blow to Hezbollah, neutralized it, eliminated Iranian forces by killing the top leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in a position to command Hezbollah through pinpoint bombing, and brought about the collapse of the hostile Asad regime.
Israel is suspicious of Jawrani, Former Head of HTS, who became President of the Syrian Interim Government. This is natural because he represented the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front.
③What are Gaza reconstruction and governance plans after the end of the Gaza War? What is the future of PLO mainstream Fatah led by President Abbas in West Bank and the Middle East peace process? What is the future of the Iranian nuclear agreement?

When this essay is published, President Trump is visiting Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. There, he will probably announce a bold peace-building plan with hope for peace in the Middle East. I hope so. In addition, I hope that he will clearly declare the end of the “war on terror” there and include a statement that will prevent another “state of war” caused by terrorism.

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